Peter Cartwright: Age Concern AGM

Kia ora tatou.

Thank you very much for inviting me here today.  I am delighted, as Patron of Age Concern, that you have asked me to make a contribution to your vision.  Today I will talk a little about the future. 

An organisation's Annual General Meeting is always an important occasion, but in the case of Age Concern, this year's meeting could be of particular significance.  The reason being that this year, interesting information has come to hand on the future of older people in this country.  This information, which primarily stems from the 2001 Census, offers plenty of food for thought and, I should think, for discussion also.

In developed countries, the ageing of the population has evolved gradually as a result of an earlier decline in fertility and improving living standards.  This has occurred over a relatively long period of time after the industrial revolution.  Later, technological breakthroughs in the field of medicine, including the development of new and effective drugs and vaccines, contributed further to ageing of the population.

As you are probably well aware, the combined effect of all these factors is that the majority of the population now lives longer and, with other factors such as declining birth rates also weighing in, there is now a significant increase in the number of older people in New Zealand.  This is the case both in absolute terms as well as relative to the rest of the population. 

The number of New Zealanders aged 65 years and over has more than doubled during the last 50 years, and there is no indication that this trend will abate.  In fact, Statistics New Zealand expects that the number of over 65 year olds will double again over the next half-century. 

The forecast is that by the year 2051, there will be nearly one point two million people over the age of 65 in New Zealand.  This will equate to 26 percent, just over one in four, of all New Zealanders.  To put this in perspective, only three years ago the over 65-year olds made up 12 percent or about one in eight of the population.

Another way of looking at the trend is this:  In 1999, there was one person aged 65 years and over for every two children. By 2051 it is projected that there will be about three people aged 65 years and over for every two children.  I guess that, if nothing else, this is good news for young parents looking for experienced babysitters.

Joking aside, this trend will, of course, have a very profound impact on how our society will function in the future.  This is what I want to talk to you about today.  But before I set about this crystal ball gazing, I want to look briefly at what it means to live longer. 

The World Health Organisation puts it like this:

"Living longer offers unprecedented opportunities for personally and socially fulfilling lives, but it also presents individual and societal challenges related to quality of life in old age, including independence, social interaction, health care and community involvement."

In other words, yes, we can live longer, yes, we have more time to do the things we want to do and yes, we can have more fun.  But we also have to look at how we look after our older bodies, and how our old age fits in with future younger generations.

The World Health Organisation goes on to say: 

"In order to respond to these challenges countries have to develop sound and affordable policies that perceive ageing as a natural process, which continues throughout the life span. Effective community-based programmes need to form an integral part of such healthy ageing policies."

This means that governments need to address population ageing through effective policy making, and communities need to assist by helping to ensure there is a place and a role for older people.

In New Zealand, there is some confidence, at least at Government level, that these issues are being addressed.  At the Second World Assembly on Ageing in Madrid earlier this year, the Chair of the New Zealand delegation, Jenni Nana, outlined New Zealand's Positive Ageing Strategy.  In it, the Government outlines its goal to achieve positive ageing through reaffirming the value of older people in society.

The development of the strategy, Ms Nana said, included a review of existing policies and services to ensure consistency with the Positive Ageing Principles which focus on health, financial security, independence, self-fulfilment, community attitudes, personal safety and security, and the physical environment. 

I will not now comment now on the specific merits or otherwise of the current Government approach - I think there are people who are much better placed than myself to do this.  However, I think it is worth acknowledging that New Zealand has taken up the World Health Organisation challenge to develop policies to address the ageing population, and this is commendable.

Jenni Nana, in her Madrid address, also gave us a snapshot of the make-up of our older population.  She said New Zealand's older population would have higher proportions of Maori, as well as Pacific peoples and Asian people.  There would be lower proportions of women who have had children and the current gender imbalance at older ages was likely to lessen. Increasingly, older people would be better educated and have more work options at age 65 than previous generations of older people. Older women would be more likely to have had a long employment history, Ms Nana said, while older men would have experienced greater diversity in their working lives.

The question then, in my mind, is not only what are the practical implications of an ageing population, but also what are the practical implications of having an older generation whose make-up will be markedly different in terms of the background and experiences than the over 65 year-olds of today? 

What do these changes mean to individuals in New Zealand in the future, and how will they affect our systems?  How will they impact on the shape of our society and the way New Zealanders lead their lives?

There is an obvious implication which has already been mentioned, and that is 'Health'.  The World Health Organisation warns that the health impact of an ageing population could be enormous.  It predicts, and I'm afraid this does not sound pretty, a big rise in cancers, coronary heart disease, diabetes, dementia and other illnesses related to ageing.

In the United Kingdom, heart expert Professor Michael Marmot has warned that there could be "a huge increase in the number of people suffering from coronary heart disease" in the next century.  I mention the UK because the ageing trend in that country is very similar to ours.  Incidentally, the West, and for the sake of this argument I include New Zealand in this, is not alone in experiencing an ageing population.  The fact is that in China, for example, the proportion of people over 65 is growing even quicker and there are predictions that the number will double within the next 25 years.

But back to the health issue.  This will be of prime importance to all.  Health is a difficult thing to get right at the best of times, and I don't need to tell that to many of you who will know only too well the type of difficulties we sometimes face when dealing with the health system.  Getting 'Health' right in the face of these population changes which, on all accounts, could be termed as radical, will be a massive challenge, and one that we ignore at our peril.

Health, of course, is just one issue of many.  Where will older people live is another.  The latest census shows that the number of older people living in their own or rented homes decreases progressively from 98 percent of those aged 65-74 years to 70 percent of those aged 85 years and over.  Of those living in non-private dwellings, and there are at present around 30 thousand of them, 81 percent were living in homes for older people/retirement homes while 9 percent were living in hospitals.  The question, then, is how well equipped are we do deal with a doubling in these numbers over the next fifty years?

The job market will also experience major changes.  The number of people aged 65 years and over in paid employment has more than doubled since 1991, and there are now around 50 thousand older people working in paid employment.  Again, double that figure, and this is being conservative, and all of a sudden we are talking about creating another fifty thousand jobs or more for those older people wanting or needing to work for a living once they're past 65. 

There will need to be a very different employment legislation regime, and a very different employment culture.  There is a risk, too, in that as we move away from discrimination on the grounds of age, we could discriminate against younger people to accommodate the perceived needs of older people.

On the plus side, there will be huge scope for older people to play a major role in all types of paid and non-paid community activities.  Seventeen percent of New Zealanders over 65 carry out voluntary work for an organisation, group or marae.  Just imagine how, if we planned it properly, our society could use this army of volunteers.  What if more older people shared their life experiences and taught our youngsters life skills, for example.  Would we have a better, safer society?

The relevance of older people for the consumer market will also increase markedly.  What will it mean to retailers that one in four New Zealanders is over 65?  For starters, it could change the range of products on offer.  The toy departments might get smaller and the sale of lifestyle products could go through the roof, if you forgive me the use of such a clich. 

In matters financial, the evolution of banking, insurance and, even more significantly, superannuation and private retirement provisions to cater for our ageing population presents huge challenges.  The Census showed that most people, some 93 percent, in the 65 years and over age group were in receipt of New Zealand Superannuation, but more than half also received income from other sources. 

I know there is ongoing and robust debate as to what route the country should take to finance an older population, but are the markets actually geared up for the diverse and evolving financial needs of the individual over 65, an individual who, by all accounts, will be quite a different consumer in 50 years time than he or she is today?

The political power of an increasingly diverse population of older people will also bring about changes in the political landscape.  Will political party memberships age? Almost certainly, yes.  Will the policies of these parties change to have a stronger emphasis on creating a society that caters better for the aged?  Probably.  Does this mean this new, evolved society may not cater quite so well for the needs of our young?  Hopefully not.

The list of questions as to how society will change to deal with population ageing is, of course, endless and if we were to discuss them all today it might indeed be the year 2051 by the time we are finished.  But I think the more questions we ask, the more answers we will eventually have, and the better our society will cope with our ageing population. 

Perhaps some of the answers will come out of the challenges and opportunities that present themselves from the increase in the number of Maori aged 65 and over.  This trend means we will need to focus our attention on the needs of older Maori, and it also means we will need to recognise the value and respect that Maori society affords its kaumatua and kuia.  Perhaps this is something we can learn from and I think it is fortunate indeed that as a nation, we are learning more and more to embrace biculturalism.

For no other reason than to demonstrate awareness, I will make brief but no more than passing mention of elder abuse.  I acknowledge that it certainly does happen.  There are some recent statistics.  Those statistics record 1500 cases of elder abuse over a period of 3 years.  That number of cases should be kept in perspective.

Although it is hardly a major problem, nevertheless it is a problem about which there is a need to heighten community awareness.  But may I suggest that elder abuse as a phenomenon pales into insignificance by reference to the incidence of child abuse and domestic violence in our communities.  It is those two particular evils which I suggest require hard work in the development of appropriate prevention strategies.

Ladies and gentlemen, I think the important thing is that we take a good look at the things we now know about how our population will change, and that we do so not with fear but with excitement and anticipation. 

I wish to end on a positive note.  In my own view, our generation has much to be grateful for.  We were the fortunate generation in terms of health care and education.  If it is not too presumptuous for me to leave you with a message, that message is that we older people are much better off than the children of single income families.

I say that because we are assured of, at the very least, a subsistence level of income with National Superannuation, which is certainly something which the older people in many developing countries do not enjoy.

My message is that we, as an older age group, should be thinking more selflessly of the generations following us.  For example, we should not moan and bitch too much about the level of national superannuation and health care, as but two examples.  Positive ageing should be the catch-cry, so that for us the title of greedy seniors is undeserving.

I will leave you with a quote from the late Bernard Baruch, the famous adviser to American presidents, who once said,

"To me, old age is always 15 years older than I am."

Tena koutou katoa.